Blue Ridge Real Estate

It would be difficult to quantify the benefits that our mountain’s TVA lakes have provided to our communities over the last 70 years. From flood control and power, swimming, fishing, power boating, canoeing; the list goes on and on. Personally, I believe Lake Blue Ridge is one of the crowning jewels of North Georgia. The water clarity alone is in stark contrast to the lakes I grew up on in South Alabama (not to mention the gators!). And then there’s real estate. I’ve enjoyed listening over the years to agents like Chris Berry, who have been visiting the lake all of their lives and can tell you stories of dock flotilla parties in the middle of the lake, legendary 4th of July celebrations, and can track back most of the lake property ownership transfers from memory. I’ve also enjoyed passing these stories onto new Fannin County residents, so that they can feel some ownership in our collective past. Regardless of what my clients are seeking, I try to make a trip to Morganton Point to show off one of our most beautiful assets. Even though the price usually prohibits further investigation, they always ask about the lake market – here is the answer for 2011 verses 2005, a high year for local real estate.

Lake Blue Ridge reported 26 total sales for 2011, with 20 residential and 6 lots. The Average Lot List Price was $389,650 with the Average Lot Sales Price of $325,983, representing an 84% discount. The lowest priced lake lot sold for $100,900 while the highest sold for $650,000. In contrast, 2005 recorded 10 lot sales on Lake Blue Ridge, with an Average Lot List Price of $643,200 and an Average Lot Sales Price of $593,500, representing a 92% discount. The lowest priced lake lot sold for $275,000, while the highest sold for $1,150,000 in 2005.
Lake Blue Ridge residence have held their value exceptionally well, especially when paired against the rest of the county’s real estate statistics. Of the 20 residences sold in 2011, the Average List Price was 986,180 and the Average Sold Price was 881,895, representing a 89% discount. The Lowest Priced home on Lake Blue Ridge sold for $371,500 and the highest priced home sold for $2,000,000. In contrast, there were 15 homes on Lake Blue Ridge sold in 2005, with an Average List Price of $1,052,679 and an Average Sales Price of $1,027,424. The lowest priced home sold for $322,000 and the highest priced home in 2005 sold for 1,875,500.

When writing this weekly article, I almost always concentrate on past statistical analysis for Fannin County real estate sales figures to help the readers understand the current “State of Real Estate” for Fannin County. In contrast to that, today’s article will enter the realm of prognostication, or predicting the future of our local and regional real estate – at least for 2012. I realize that no one can say what the future holds. That being said, real estate professionals (agents, appraisers, bankers, investors, etc) generally use past performance to predict future results. The more recent the sales activity for a given property, the more “weight” that property will be hold when comparing for pricing purposes. Since price prediction is easily the top request from our clients in regards to their personal properties, I thought this would be an appropriate topic to cover. With broad strokes, I will review my favorite five sectors in our local real estate market and give my prediction of the direction each will take in 2012.
Commercial – This sector has been relatively slow and steady in Fannin County for the last decade when compared to our neighbors to the south, but the last few years it has been positively stagnate. I predict that, with the abundance of affordable residential properties available south of Ellijay on the Hwy 515 corridor, our commercial activity will not be driven by the “bedroom community” scenario, but will continue to grow slowly to meet the needs of Fannin County’s growing tourism industry.
Foreclosure – Since this Sector touches all other Sectors, Foreclosure sales still dominate real estate conversations. Unfortunately, I have been given a peek into the future of this sector from friends in the local banking business. I predict Foreclosures will remain close to 40% of our sales in 2012.
Cabins – The Cabin Sector is heating up! The Fannin County cabin inventory is down to 360, with less than 9 months of inventory available in the $100,000 to $200,000 according to December’s MLS stats. I predict a big year in Cabin sales, with the Median Sales Price staying close to $200,000.
Waterfront – Again, this Sector touches all other sectors, and although the current numbers are low, there appears to be pent up demand for Lake property and new lake inventory. In contrast, River property sales may suffer unless the trout situation is settled. I predict these two will balance out and we will see no gains or losses in the Sector.
Lots/Land – The Lots and Land Sector has plenty of room to grow, and the statistics have been pointing in this direction for many months. With lending institutions beginning to loosen up credit for builders, coupled with unbelievably low prices on raw land, I predict our building industry will rebound slightly thereby giving this Sector a boost and providing fresh residential inventory.

The final tallies are in and, just as most of our local businesses, we spend a little time in January comparing the fruits of our labor to our previous year’s work. In casual conversation I’m often asked, “How did your year turn out?”. Since I know that the question is asked to be a polite conversation starter and not a question that requires a Powerpoint presentation on my Profit and Loss statement, I usually answer (and have been able to answer over the last few years), “Our production was certainly better than the year before!”. And as that was the case in my firm for 2011, I suspect the same could be said for almost every real estate company in Fannin County. In case you’re asked how real estate fared in Fannin County in 2011, I’ll provide you with some quick facts to help you:

In total, Fannin County had 710 sales in 2011 and 661 sales in 2010 as reported by the Northeast Georgia MLS. This represents a 7.41% increase, or an average of approximately 4 additional units sold per month within the county. The overall Median Sales Price dropped, from $143,333 in 2010 to $125,663 in 2011, but that decrease will be explained below.
The Cabin Sector for Fannin County stayed very close to last year in almost every statistical category. 2011 saw a slight dip from 2010, dropping just over 2% from 317 to 310 units sold. The Days on Market remained unchanged with an average of 144 days and the Listing Discount, which the spread between the asking price at the time of contract and the actual sales price at closing, change by one percent, from 10% in 2010 to 9% in 2011.
The Land Sector for Fannin County is responsible for the dip in Median Sales Price due to the increase in land sales in general. 2011 reported a 20.44% increase over 2010′s land sales, going from 181 to 218. That significant climb in raw land translates into an overall decrease in the Median Sales Price, in the Median Sales Price for land has dropped from $47,756 in 2010 to $29,442 in 2011. Although on the surface, this decrease might be unwelcome news for Fannin County landowners, I believe that the inventory must diminish before we can see a rise in price. With a 20% gain, Fannin County is well on it’s way.